The five-day talks in California between Chinese climate envoy Xie Zhenhua and his US counterpart John Kerry have “concluded successfully”, according to the Chinese ministry of ecology and environment (MEE), reports the South China Morning Post. The talks were expected to “lay the groundwork” for COP28 and a potential summit between presidents Xi Jinping and Joe Biden next week, the Hong Kong-based outlet adds. Bloomberg says that the talks, which ended Wednesday, have offered “warm words”, but “no details of any new initiatives to slow the pace of global warming”.

Reuters says that Kerry has exited the talks saying the two countries have reached “understandings and agreements” on climate issues, describing the dialogue as “tough and serious”. The newswire quotes Kerry saying: “We had a few moments where, as in any negotiation, you think it’s all despair. We did come up with some very solid understandings and agreements which will help the COP and will also put us both in a place where we can help the world by focusing on more renewables and other kinds of things.” Reuters adds: “Kerry said details of the agreements between the two would be released soon. One important agreement reached on climate loss and damage would allow any country to contribute to a fund to support the regions most vulnerable to climate impacts, Kerry said. Kerry, when asked if he expected any compromise on coal from China, said: ‘You wait and see.’ China now has 360 gigawatts of coal-fired power capacity in its project construction pipeline, he said, but ‘they’re trying very hard to move away’. Right now, ‘it is irresponsible to be funding a coal-fired power plant anywhere in the world,’ he said.”

Another Bloomberg article writes that progress at COP28 will “depend greatly” on the US and China and their negotiators’ meetings, adding that “US and Chinese negotiators want a package deal to emerge from COP28”. The Singapore-based Straits Times reports that neither the US nor China have “officially confirmed” the upcoming Biden-Xi meeting, but that it is expected to be held on 15 November. Reuters writes that US treasury secretary Janet Yellen began two days of meetings with Chinese vice premier He Lifeng on Thursday in an effort to “limit the economic fallout” from US-China tensions and maintain open channels of communication “on topics [ranging] from national security to climate change”. And Reuters also reports that “EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra will travel to Beijing next week for talks with China’s top climate envoy Xie Zhenhua”.

Meanwhile, the state news agency Xinhua reports that vice premier Ding Xuexiang remarked at a meeting that China should ensure the production and supply of coal and natural gas in the winter and enhance energy supply through initiatives such as “coal-to-gas” and “coal-to-electricity”. Another Xinhua article reports that vice environment minister Zhao Yingmin says that the preparations for launching the national voluntary greenhouse gas emissions trading market are now “basically in place”. 

Elsewhere, the Communist party-affiliated newspaper Economic Daily carries a commentary arguing that “the utilisation of coal extends far beyond power generation; modern coal chemical technologies can transform coal into various high-end new materials, significantly reducing carbon emissions”. Finally, Xinhua reports on a study by Chinese researchers which found that “extreme weather events, such as floods, droughts, storms, heatwaves and cold waves, may encourage the invasion of alien species”, posing threat to global biodiversity.

Brazil’s National Institute of Space Research has announced that deforestation within the nation’s Amazon rainforest has fallen to a five-year low, reports the New York Times. The newspaper adds that it is a “sign” that Brazil is making progress on its pledge to halt all deforestation by the end of the decade. It continues: “The institute reported that 3,500 square miles had been clear-cut between August 2022 and July 2023, a 22.3% decrease from the same period a year earlier. The decline in tree loss is estimated to have reduced the country’s greenhouse gas emissions by 7.5%. Brazil is the world’s sixth largest emitter, by some measures.” Reuters says: “It was the smallest area cleared since 2018, the year before Bolsonaro took office. The Amazon jungle is the world’s largest rainforest and its protection is seen as vital to curbing climate change. ‘It’s an impressive result and seals Brazil’s return to the climate agenda,’ said Marcio Astrini, head of advocacy group Climate Observatory. Still, this year’s deforestation rate remains nearly twice that of the all-time low in forest destruction in 2012 and far from Lula’s pledge to reach zero deforestation by 2030.”

Bloomberg reports that the “UK government is preparing to offer significantly higher subsidies for new offshore wind farms to get the country’s clean-power strategy back on track after developers shunned a previous auction”.The outlet continues: “The ceiling for bids from offshore wind companies in the next auction round is likely to be considerably more than this year’s £44 ($54) of guaranteed revenue per megawatt-hour of power produced, according to people familiar with the matter. The price, due to be published later this month, is likely to be set at about £70-75, one of the people said. Shares of wind-farm developers including SSE and RWE rose on the news. Orsted, the world’s largest offshore wind builder, closed up 5.3% in Copenhagen, its largest jump in a week. A substantial hike may help attract developers – none of which bid into the latest auction round because the price was too low for offshore wind to be viable. It would also come as Orsted plans to decide by December whether to proceed with a UK development, and as Sweden’s Vattenfall mulls what to do with a giant project off the English coast that it shelved earlier this year in response to soaring costs. An auction limit of £75 a megawatt-hour will mark a reversal from previous tenders, where prices have fallen steadily in recent years and some deals hit a record-low £37 in 2022. The prices are based on 2012 levels, meaning the resulting contracts may be more expensive.” (See Carbon Brief’s recent analysis showing that UK renewables are still cheaper than gas, despite the recent auction’s setback for offshore wind.)

In other UK news, the Press Association reports that the “boss of National Grid has again called for reforms to slash delays that threaten the rollout of renewable energy across the UK”. The newswire continues: “Wind and solar farms are being forced to wait as long as 14 years before they can be connected to the grid and start producing electricity. But John Pettigrew, the man responsible for the cables that connect these projects, said that the current system needs change to allow his engineers to speed up their rollout. Some projects which are likely to never be built are being put ahead of genuine wind farms from serious operators, he told the Press Association.” The Guardian also carries the story, adding: “National Grid has increased its investment plans to £42bn by 2026 as the backlog of clean energy projects waiting to connect to the UK’s power networks continues to grow.”

Meanwhile, the Daily Telegraph covers new analysis by AutoTrader which shows that “second hand electric cars now often cost the same as petrol equivalents after tepid demand forced sellers to cut prices”. City AM says: “A Conservative former energy minister said he cannot support the king’s speech over the government’s plans for new oil and gas licensing. Chris Skidmore, who led a government-commissioned review on net-zero, offered an apology to the king over his decision and said he regrets that the future use of fossil fuels has become ‘politicised’.” And the Conversation carries a comment piece by two academics at the University of Leeds headlined: “Sunak’s climate shift is out of touch with the demands of the UK’s workforce – here’s why.”

The European Parliament and EU member states have reached an agreement on a key biodiversity bill aimed at rewilding EU land and water habitats, reports Agence France-Press (AFP). The newswire adds: “The law will force EU countries to put in place measures to restore at least 20% of the EU’s land and 20% of the EU’s seas by 2030, said a statement by the council, which represents the 27 member states. There had been attempts by the parliament’s biggest grouping, the conservative European People’s Party (EPP), to shoot down the text earlier this year. While EU lawmakers welcomed the agreement reached before midnight following hours of talks that began on Thursday afternoon, some critics pointed to watered down elements.” Reuters says the “fiercely contested law”, once approved, which is says is typically a formality, will mean “governments would be required to avoid significant deterioration in healthy habitats, and introduce targeted measures to increase two out of these three: grassland butterfly populations, nature-friendly features like hedges on farmland, and carbon storage in soils”. It continues: “The deal is a compromise struck after months of political campaigning. Some governments had warned that Europe is pushing too many environmental laws onto industries, while centre-right EU lawmakers had led a campaign to kill the bill, arguing it would hurt farmers. Some EU countries and lawmakers have fought to keep the law, arguing strong action is needed to rescue declining species and harness nature’s ability to shield people from worsening climate impacts by cooling down cities with green spaces, or using wetlands to avoid floods.”

Meanwhile, Reuters reports that new European Union pollution rules for combustion engine cars and trucks are “set to be less ambitious than originally planned, after lawmakers voted on Thursday to delay and weaken some of the regulations”.

More than 60 countries have said they back a deal spearheaded by the EU, US and United Arab Emirates to triple renewable energy this decade and shift away from coal, two officials familiar with the matter have told Reuters. The newswire continues: “The EU, US and UAE have been rallying support for the pledge ahead of [COP28] and will call for its inclusion in the final outcome of a gathering of world leaders on 2 December, the officials said. Some major emerging economies like Nigeria, South Africa and Vietnam, developed countries like Australia, Japan and Canada, and others including Peru, Chile, Zambia and Barbados have said they will join the pledge, the officials told Reuters. A draft of the pledge, reviewed by Reuters, would also commit those who sign it to doubling the world’s annual rate of improving energy efficiency to 4% per year until 2030. The draft says the greater use of renewables must be accompanied by ‘the phase down of unabated coal power’, including ending the financing of new coal-fired power plants. One of the officials told Reuters negotiations with China and India to join the pledge are ‘quite advanced’, although neither has yet agreed to join.” Politico covers comments made to parliamentarians on Wednesday by UK climate minister Graham Stuart, who will lead the UK’s delegation at COP28, in which he said he was not fixated on whether countries agree to “phasing down” or “phasing out” fossil fuels so long as the COP agreement “translates into real action”.

In other COP28 news, a separate article by Reuters says that Pope Francis will have “nearly an entire day of bilateral meetings with world leaders” when he attends the conference in Dubai, adding: “It will be the first time in his papacy that the pope, 86, who is also a head of state, has so many high-level, one-on-one meetings with counterparts and others in such a short amount of time.”

Germany’s ruling coalition has reached a deal on how to support industry struggling with high electricity prices in the coming five years, reports Clean Energy Wire, adding: “The package of measures, worth €12bn in 2024 alone, includes lowering the electricity tax and extending and expanding existing subsidy schemes. The deal is set to end a months-long dispute within the coalition and means that economy minister Robert Habeck’s proposal for a capped industry electricity price is shelved. Industry associations welcomed the package and said it would help strengthen Germany as a business location.” The Times says the measures will “reduce the levy on each megawatt-hour of electricity from €15.37 to €0.50, the lowest level permitted by the EU”. The newspaper adds: “A further €5.5bn will go towards subsidising companies’ network charges, the fees they pay to the power grid operators. Another 350 of the most energy-intensive firms, such as the chemical group BASF and the ‘big three’ German carmakers, will benefit from an expanded compensation scheme for carbon tax under an existing fund. The measures are intended to buy German industry breathing space as it struggles to adjust to higher energy prices. Factoring in taxes and levies, the average price for a megawatt-hour of electricity has risen by a fifth since the start of 2020, with a steeper increase in the cost of natural gas.” Reuters explains: “The agreement, first reported by the Handelsblatt newspaper, comes after months of wrangling within the coalition over how to ensure German industry remains competitive after Russia curbed gas supplies in retaliation for western sanctions over the war in Ukraine, sending energy prices sharply higher.” 

Separately, the Times reports that “Germany has asked Brussels to postpone a set of post-Brexit rules [due to fall on New Year’s Day] that would, in effect, impose a 10% tariff on most electric car exports between the UK and the EU”.

Shell is suing Greenpeace for $2.1m after activists from the environmental group occupied one of its vessels to protest against its North Sea oil drilling plans, reports the Times. The newspaper continues: “The oil major claimed that it had incurred significant costs after six Greenpeace activists boarded a ship carrying a floating production, storage and offloading vessel in January as it was en route to a shipyard in Norway. The activists occupied the vessel, which is ultimately intended for use at the Penguins field in the UK North Sea, for 13 days. Shell said the protest had been extremely dangerous. It offered to drop the court action if Greenpeace paid it $1.4m and agreed never to attempt to board or obstruct any Shell equipment at sea or in port ever again, according to email correspondence.” Shell tells the Financial Times that it respects the right to protest, but that “it must be done safely and lawfully”, adding: “Greenpeace rejected the offer [from Shell] in October, telling Shell that it would only agree to no further protests if the company complied with a court ruling in the Netherlands in 2021 that required Shell to cut all of its emissions by 45% by 2030. Shell has appealed against the ruling.” The Daily Telegraph says: “Proceedings have been launched as Shell’s chief executive Wael Sawan pursues a shift away from green energy and ramps up the production of fossil fuels.”

Reuters reports that Australia prime minister Anthony Albanese has signed a bilateral agreement with Tuvalu, aimed at “countering China’s influence in the Pacific and protecting the tiny island nation from climate change”. The newswire adds: “While the full text of the agreement has not been released, the Sydney Morning Herald reported earlier on Friday that all 11,200 residents of Tuvalu would be offered refuge in Australia if climate change made the country uninhabitable. The government press release following the treaty signing made no mention of mass climate asylum. Tuvalu, a collection of nine low-lying islands mid-way between Australia and Hawaii, is one of the world’s most at-risk countries from climate change and has long drawn international attention to the issue. Earlier this year, Tuvalu appeared at legal hearings at an international court in Germany, seeking an advisory opinion on the obligations of countries to combat climate change. Former Tuvalu foreign minister Simon Kofe told the COP27 climate summit last year Tuvalu plans to build a digital version of itself, replicating islands and landmarks and preserving its history and culture.” Sky News also has the story.

The global consultancy McKinsey & Company is “using its position” as a key advisor to the UN’s COP28 to “push the interests of its big oil and gas clients”, reports AFP. According to multiple sources and leaked documents, behind closed doors the US-based firm has proposed future energy scenarios to the agenda setters of the summit that are at odds with the climate goals it publicly espouses, the AFP investigation has found. An “energy transition narrative” drafted by McKinsey only reduces oil use by 50% by 2050 and calls for trillions in new oil and gas investment per year from now until then, the article states. McKinsey has responded by telling AFP that it is committed to help clients reach the 2050 net-zero target and this means engaging with “high-emitting sectors”.

Chris Giles, the FT’s economics commentator, argues that a “difficult autumn of news is masking real advances in the most important areas” when it comes to the net-zero transition: “Across the EU, the US and China, fossil fuel generation of electricity rose only marginally in the first half of 2023. In the power sector, fossil fuel use will probably peak this year and begin to fall from 2024 at an accelerating pace. Solar power installation is still rising quickly and solar manufacturing capacity rose 70% in 2022 and is on track to double again by 2024…Along with the rapid shift to renewable electricity, we have also witnessed price effects from the energy crisis improving efficiency of power use, which gives us some breathing space to enhance the grids, essential for progress to net-zero.” He concludes: “Clearly, the world is not yet on track to defeat global warming. There is still much to do. But despite relentless difficulties, the trade-offs are actually getting easier. Long may that continue.”

Meanwhile, Bloomberg carries a comment piece by Lara Williams arguing that  the carbon-offset market “can’t police itself”. (It cites Carbon Brief’s recent week-long series of articles focused on carbon-setting.) The Daily Mail has published a full-page screed by climate-sceptic commentator Brendan O’Neill raging against “woke” banks which “virtue-signal” about climate change. And, writing in the House magazine, the SNP MP Deidre Brock argues that the “UK government has a moral obligation to help those most affected by climate change”.

A new study finds that houses in the US are increasingly exposed to – and destroyed by – wildfires. Researchers use wildfire occurrence data over 1990-2020, new home construction permits and maps of the types of land cover across the US to determine how fire risk is changing over time. They find that forest fires are more destructive than grass and shrubland fires, but more homes are exposed to the latter. In addition, the number of homes at risk has doubled since the 1990s – in part due to the increase in new housing and in part due to the expansion of burned area over that time.